Week 15 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-09 18:54

75%
Win Probability
+26.7
Projected Margin
CI: [+6.7 to +46.7]
0
Boom Potential
None
5
Bust Risk
Bucky Irving (50%), Juwan Johnson (58%), Omarion Hampton (54%), Rams D/ST (58%), Jameson Williams (45%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love MC shows Brissett 73% historical BOOM rate vs Love's 23%. Despite tough HOU defense, Brissett's 3 straight 300+ yard games pattern is elite. Love @ DEN (rank 6 vs QB) in cold.
TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Henry faces BUF (rank 1 vs TE) - worst TE matchup in NFL. XGB shows 60% bust risk. Johnson vs CAR (rank 23) much more favorable, dome game.
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Williams WR11 ECR with 4 straight 88+ yard games. McMillan (rookie) @ NO dome is decent but less consistent. Williams' hot streak wins.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett HOU13.919.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving ATL15.214.0MODERATEHIGH
RB Omarion Hampton KC11.710.0MODERATELOW
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba IND20.822.0MODERATEHIGH
WR Rashee Rice LAC17.218.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson CAR9.711.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams LAR13.917.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers IND8.510.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Rams D/ST DET4.26.0MODERATELOW

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 19% bust
ADD Evan Engram (TE) 32% boom / 24% bust
ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn (K) 29% boom / 30% bust
Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

No urgent adds needed. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) showing 28% boom on waivers if TE streaming needed. Ka'imi Fairbairn (K, HOU) available as kicker backup. Monitor Philip Rivers Colts situation for potential QB impact on IND defense vs JSN.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 sees Valued Customers (8-6) heavily favored against Auto DraftKings (4-10) with a projected 127-100 victory. The lineup features Thursday night starter Bucky Irving vs Atlanta, followed by Sunday's key matchup of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR) hosting Indianapolis in rainy Seattle. Jacoby Brissett gets the nod over Jordan Love based on his 73% historical boom rate despite facing Houston's top-ranked QB defense. The cold weather games in Kansas City (22F) and Chicago (10F) present ball-handling concerns, but the indoor games in New Orleans and Los Angeles provide stable conditions for McMillan and Jameson Williams.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 15)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 13.9 19.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 14.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 11.7 10.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.8 22.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.2 18.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 11.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 13.9 17.0
Jason Myers K K 8.5 10.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 4.2 6.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 10.7 11.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 11.0 8.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 14.8 15.5
Luther Burden III (bench) WR BE 8.1 9.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 12.8 10.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.2 12.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 10.1 8.0
0.0 Starter Actuals
127.0 Remaining Proj
127.0 Est. Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Caleb Williams QB QB 16.1 ---
Jonathan Taylor RB RB 16.7 ---
Sean Tucker RB RB 2.9 ---
A.J. Brown WR WR 16.8 ---
Justin Jefferson WR WR 15.7 ---
Dalton Schultz TE TE 8.9 ---
Emeka Egbuka WR RB/WR/TE 12.2 ---
Jake Elliott K K 8.0 ---
Commanders D/ST D/ST D/ST 3.1 ---
C.J. Stroud (bench) QB BE 17.2 ---
Courtland Sutton (bench) WR BE 13.2 ---
David Njoku (bench) TE BE 4.2 ---
Jakobi Meyers (bench) WR BE 11.9 ---
Kenneth Gainwell (bench) RB BE 12.6 ---
Khalil Shakir (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) WR BE 14.9 ---
0.0 Opp Actuals
100.3 Opp Remaining
100.3 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +26.7 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24], 28% BUST. XGB: 28% boom, 23% bust - agrees MODERATE. @ DEN tough def (rank 6 vs QB), cold 57F. QB19 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 15.5 pts within [9-24].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 19

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CHI17.619.3?+1.6
13DET15.725.8?+10.0
12MIN17.47.1?-10.4
11NYG16.317.7?+1.3
10PHI17.07.8?-9.1
9CAR18.19.0?-9.1
8PIT17.128.3?+11.2
7ARI17.413.4?-4.0
6CIN19.315.0?-4.4
5BYE0.00.0?+0.0
4DAL18.626.3?+7.7
3CLE16.011.1?-4.9
2WSH17.620.9?+3.3
1DET14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 19.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], only 25% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 31% bust - DISAGREES. LLM trusts MC historical pattern (3 straight 300+ yd games). @ HOU toughest vs QB (rank 1), but Brissett's personal history strongly BOOM. Mode: BOOM. 19.0 pts within [12-30].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR15.319.0?+3.7
13TB17.219.6?+2.4
12JAX16.718.7?+1.9
  • 3-game streak of beating projections

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MOD [8-20], 19% BOOM, 17% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust - HIGH BUST WARNING. Thursday vs ATL (rank 20 vs RB) favorable, but XGB sees bust risk. RB11 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (conservative). 14.0 pts within [8-20].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 11

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14NO16.416.1?-0.3
13ARI11.816.1?+4.3
12LAR0.00.0?+0.0
11BUF0.00.0?+0.0
10NE0.00.0?+0.0
9BYE0.00.0?+0.0
8NO0.00.0?+0.0
7DET0.00.0?+0.0
6SF0.00.0?+0.0
5SEA0.00.0?+0.0
4PHI17.525.5?+8.0
3NYJ17.913.9?-4.0
2HOU15.918.1?+2.2
1ATL17.314.5?-2.8
  • Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MOD [4-14], 18% BUST, 15% BOOM. XGB: 20% boom, 36% bust. @ SF (rank 17 vs RB), pleasant weather. RB33 ECR poor. Low usage committee. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 8.0 pts within [4-14].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 33

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CLE8.66.7?-1.9
13JAX9.98.4?-1.5
12SEA9.66.5?-3.1
11HOU9.08.4?-0.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9LAC9.59.2?-0.3
8IND9.517.2?+7.7
7NE7.87.0?-0.8
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [5-18], 27% BOOM, 26% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust - HIGH BUST. First game back from IR Week 14. @ KC tough def (rank 6 vs RB), freezing 22F. Committee with Vidal. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 10.0 pts within [5-18].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14PHI12.114.7?+2.6
13LV0.00.0?+0.0
12BYE0.00.0?+0.0
11JAX0.00.0?+0.0
10PIT0.00.0?+0.0
9TEN0.00.0?+0.0
8MIN0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 2.1 pts vs 1.7 projected (+21%)
  • Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.65)
  • Season high: 14.7 pts in Week 14

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WAS)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [0-6], 22% MOD [5-13], 19% BOOM. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WAS (rank 27 vs RB) favorable matchup. RB28 ECR. Goal-line role helps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].

Context: O/U: 47.5 | ECR: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
12DET9.94.7?-5.2
11GB9.617.7?+8.1
10CHI9.710.3?+0.6
  • Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
  • Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MOD [13-25], 29% BOOM [21-36], 30% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 21% bust - conservative. vs IND (rank 27 vs WR) EXCELLENT. WR1 ECR! Rain/wind 15mph slight concern. MC/XGB disagree - LLM trusts matchup. Mode: MODERATE (high end). 22.0 pts within [13-25].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 1

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14ATL20.928.1?+7.2
13MIN21.94.3?-17.6
12TEN21.337.1?+15.8
11LAR23.020.6?-2.4
10ARI22.020.3?-1.7
9WSH24.522.0?-2.5
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7HOU20.026.3?+6.3
6JAX17.930.2?+12.3
5TB15.927.2?+11.3
4ARI16.413.0?-3.4
3NO15.520.6?+5.1
2PIT14.418.3?+3.9
1SF14.719.4?+4.7
  • Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST [2-11], 34% MOD [8-19], 16% BOOM. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. @ NO dome (rank 11 vs WR). WR21 ECR. Rookie, inconsistent. Mode: MODERATE. 12.0 pts within [8-19].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 21

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
13LAR13.211.3?-1.9
12SF16.311.5?-4.8
11ATL13.533.0?+19.5
10NO12.211.0?-1.2
9GB12.98.6?-4.3
8BUF13.416.9?+3.5
7NYJ12.56.3?-6.2
6DAL14.617.9?+3.3
5MIA14.213.3?-0.9
4NE14.210.2?-4.0
3ATL13.27.8?-5.4
2ARI13.516.0?+2.5
1JAX13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-31], 31% BUST, 26% MOD. XGB: 32% boom, 29% bust - balanced. vs LAC (rank 2 vs WR) TOUGH defense. Freezing 22F KC. WR7 ECR good. Mode: MODERATE (matchup tempers boom). 18.0 pts within [10-22].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 7

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14HOU17.17.4?-9.7
13DAL18.129.4?+11.3
12IND17.624.1?+6.5
11DEN16.49.8?-6.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9BUF18.418.6?+0.2
8WSH17.225.5?+8.2
7LV13.723.2?+9.5
6DET0.00.0?+0.0
5JAX0.00.0?+0.0
4BAL0.00.0?+0.0
3NYG0.00.0?+0.0
2PHI0.00.0?+0.0
  • Averaging 10.6 pts vs 9.1 projected (+16%)
  • Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.11)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [9-22], 24% BOOM, 30% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 47% bust - warns bust. @ LAR (rank 18 vs WR) decent. WR11 ECR. 4 straight 88+ yard games hot streak. Mode: MODERATE (ride streak). 17.0 pts within [9-22].

Context: O/U: 54.5 | ECR: 11

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 45% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14DAL13.817.3?+3.5
13GB11.826.9?+15.1
12NYG12.90.0?-12.9
11PHI12.619.7?+7.1
  • Averaging 16.0 pts vs 12.8 projected (+25%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.71)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 55% MOD [6-15], 25% BOOM, 20% BUST (limited data). XGB: N/A (insufficient history). vs CLE (rank 4 vs WR) tough. FREEZING 10F Chicago! Odunze injured = more targets. WR48 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 9.0 pts within [6-15].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 48

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14GB10.311.0?+0.7

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MOD [5-13], 32% BOOM [10-20], 26% BUST. XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust - warns bust. vs CAR (rank 23 vs TE) favorable. Dome game. TE12 ECR. TE5 since Week 10. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14TB9.77.8?-1.9
13MIA8.78.9?+0.2
12ATL9.310.6?+1.3
11BYE0.00.0?+0.0
10CAR8.919.2?+10.2
9LAR8.312.1?+3.8
  • Averaging 9.8 pts vs 7.5 projected (+31%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.64)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [1-8], 40% MOD [6-17], 13% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust - STRONG BUST signal. vs BUF (rank 1 vs TE) WORST matchup. Cold 30F. TE13 ECR. Mode: BUST. 8.0 pts within [1-8] - touching MOD range.

Context: O/U: 49.5 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24], 28% BUST. XGB: 28% boom, 23% bust - agrees MODERATE. @ DEN tough def (rank 6 vs QB), cold 57F. QB19 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 15.5 pts within [9-24].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CHI17.619.3?+1.6
13DET15.725.8?+10.0
12MIN17.47.1?-10.4
11NYG16.317.7?+1.3
10PHI17.07.8?-9.1
9CAR18.19.0?-9.1
8PIT17.128.3?+11.2
7ARI17.413.4?-4.0
6CIN19.315.0?-4.4
5BYE0.00.0?+0.0
4DAL18.626.3?+7.7
3CLE16.011.1?-4.9
2WSH17.620.9?+3.3
1DET14.915.9?+1.0
  • Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST [2-11], 34% MOD [8-19], 16% BOOM. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. @ NO dome (rank 11 vs WR). WR21 ECR. Rookie, inconsistent. Mode: MODERATE. 12.0 pts within [8-19].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
13LAR13.211.3?-1.9
12SF16.311.5?-4.8
11ATL13.533.0?+19.5
10NO12.211.0?-1.2
9GB12.98.6?-4.3
8BUF13.416.9?+3.5
7NYJ12.56.3?-6.2
6DAL14.617.9?+3.3
5MIA14.213.3?-0.9
4NE14.210.2?-4.0
3ATL13.27.8?-5.4
2ARI13.516.0?+2.5
1JAX13.911.8?-2.1
  • Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. () - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%

Notes: MC: 43% MOD [6-17], 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 45% boom, 18% bust - bullish! @ HOU (rank 3 vs WR) tough. WR39 ECR very low, heel injury concern. QUESTIONABLE status. Mode: MODERATE (injury risk). 10.0 pts within [6-17].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14LAR0.00.0?+0.0
13TB13.712.9?-0.8
12JAX0.00.0?+0.0
11SF0.00.0?+0.0
10SEA13.314.3?+1.0
9DAL13.322.6?+9.3
8BYE0.00.0?+0.0
7GB12.57.8?-4.7
6IND11.95.2?-6.7
5TEN12.813.8?+1.0
4SEA11.318.6?+7.3
3SF12.77.4?-5.3
2CAR14.04.7?-9.3
1NO13.918.1?+4.2
  • Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 36%

Notes: MC: 67% MOD [4-14], 18% BUST, 15% BOOM. XGB: 20% boom, 36% bust. @ SF (rank 17 vs RB), pleasant weather. RB33 ECR poor. Low usage committee. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 8.0 pts within [4-14].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14CLE8.66.7?-1.9
13JAX9.98.4?-1.5
12SEA9.66.5?-3.1
11HOU9.08.4?-0.6
10BYE0.00.0?+0.0
9LAC9.59.2?-0.3
8IND9.517.2?+7.7
7NE7.87.0?-0.8
  • 4-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST [1-8], 40% MOD [6-17], 13% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust - STRONG BUST signal. vs BUF (rank 1 vs TE) WORST matchup. Cold 30F. TE13 ECR. Mode: BUST. 8.0 pts within [1-8] - touching MOD range.

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WAS

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST [0-6], 22% MOD [5-13], 19% BOOM. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WAS (rank 27 vs RB) favorable matchup. RB28 ECR. Goal-line role helps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14BYE0.00.0?+0.0
12DET9.94.7?-5.2
11GB9.617.7?+8.1
10CHI9.710.3?+0.6
  • Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
  • Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

Notes: MC: 55% MOD [6-15], 25% BOOM, 20% BUST (limited data). XGB: N/A (insufficient history). vs CLE (rank 4 vs WR) tough. FREEZING 10F Chicago! Odunze injured = more targets. WR48 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 9.0 pts within [6-15].

WeekOppProjActualMode+/-
14GB10.311.0?+0.7

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Dalton Schultz TE HOU 9.0 9.0 29% 46% 25% MEDIUM
Justin Jefferson WR MIN 13.4 13.4 18% 60% 22% LOW
Jake Elliott K PHI 7.9 7.9 18% 28% 53% LOW
Caleb Williams QB CHI 17.1 17.1 13% 68% 19% LOW
Sean Tucker RB TB 9.9 9.9 12% 52% 36% LOW
Emeka Egbuka WR TB 12.2 12.2 9% 36% 55% LOW
A.J. Brown WR PHI 15.7 15.7 9% 35% 56% LOW
Jonathan Taylor RB IND 20.7 20.7 9% 36% 55% LOW
Commanders D/ST D/ST WSH 3.1 3.1 0% 0% 0% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 25%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 53%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 36%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%50%
Bust%19%
EV12.0
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%32%
Bust%24%
EV8.4
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)
ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn K,
Boom%29%
Bust%30%
EV10.3
BUST: 14% (1-7) MODERATE: 51% (5-12) BOOM: 35% (10-20)
ADD Harold Fannin Jr. TE,
Boom%28%
Bust%21%
EV10.5
BUST: 40% (2-8) MODERATE: 44% (7-16) BOOM: 16% (15-27)
ADD Michael Badgley K,
Boom%28%
Bust%45%
EV8.6
BUST: 27% (2-8) MODERATE: 53% (5-12) BOOM: 20% (9-18)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.0 50% 19% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.4 32% 24% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.3 29% 30% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 10.5 28% 21% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.6 28% 45% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.7 27% 39% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.5 27% 36% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 24% 27% 0.0%
Chuba Hubbard RB 11.4 22% 36% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 22% 43% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.8 21% 37% 0.0%
Dolphins D/ST D/ST 8.8 18% 49% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.8 18% 46% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 14.6 16% 56% 0.0%
Kyler Murray QB 16.9 14% 45% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 14.6 BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% 16% 56%
Kyler Murray 16.9 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 14% 45%
Justin Fields 16.3 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 14% 48%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.0 BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% 50% 19%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 24% 27%
Chuba Hubbard 11.4 BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% 22% 36%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% 21% 37%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 8% 59%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.7 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 8.8 BUST:39%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:18% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 9.8 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% 14% 55%
Rashid Shaheed 10.0 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 10% 58%
Keenan Allen 11.7 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 10% 55%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 8.4 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 32% 24%
Harold Fannin Jr. 10.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% 28% 21%
Colston Loveland 9.9 BUST:47%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 10% 50%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.3 29% 30%
Michael Badgley 8.6 28% 45%
Evan McPherson 9.5 10% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.5 27% 36%
Patriots D/ST 8.8 22% 43%
Dolphins D/ST 8.8 18% 49%

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Marvin Harrison Jr.12.810.0MODERATE42.3%38.7%19.0%
Jason MyersK8.510.0MODERATE37.9%38.7%23.4%
Rashee RiceWR17.218.0MODERATE31.0%39.7%29.3%
Jordan LoveQB14.815.5MODERATE28.1%50.3%21.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.212.0MODERATE23.8%54.2%21.9%
Jacoby BrissettQB13.919.0BOOM23.7%44.5%31.8%
Tyjae SpearsRB10.18.0MODERATE19.7%44.3%36.0%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.711.0MODERATE15.4%26.5%58.1%
Jameson WilliamsWR13.917.0MODERATE13.6%41.0%45.4%
Rams D/STD/ST4.26.0MODERATE13.5%28.0%58.5%
Devin SingletaryRB10.711.0MODERATE13.3%31.9%54.8%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.822.0MODERATE11.7%62.0%26.3%
Bucky IrvingRB15.214.0MODERATE11.1%38.3%50.5%
Omarion HamptonRB11.710.0MODERATE10.6%35.6%53.9%
Hunter HenryTE11.08.0BUST8.6%31.4%60.0%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-09 18:54

Matchup Summary

67.6%

Win Probability

+14.5
Expected Margin
127.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
109.2
Opponent (Proj)
32.8
Margin Std Dev
124.1
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -27.9 pts | Median: +14.9 pts | Ceiling: +56.4 pts

Margin Distribution

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 19.0 4.0-27.7 ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 14.0 5.2-24.0 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 9% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 10.0 3.6-24.4 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 16% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 22.0 6.2-30.3 ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 5% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 18.0 6.1-27.8 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.0 4.0-25.1 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 11.0 2.8-17.0 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 1.1-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 33% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 5.3-17.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 8% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 15.5 6.5-27.8 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 8.0 2.4-18.8 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 11.0 0.7-18.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 51% Devin Singletary
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 12.0 5.4-25.4 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 7% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 10.0 3.7-21.8 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Luther Burden III WR LOW 9.0 7.4-14.8 ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 3% Luther Burden III
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 8.0 3.5-22.3 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Caleb Williams QB HIGH 17.0 6.0-30.1 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 6% Caleb Williams
Jonathan Taylor RB HIGH 20.8 8.7-38.0 ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 0% Jonathan Taylor
Sean Tucker RB HIGH 10.0 1.3-27.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% Sean Tucker
Justin Jefferson WR HIGH 13.4 5.5-22.6 ↑15+: 38% | ↓5-: 7% Justin Jefferson
A.J. Brown WR HIGH 15.7 2.7-29.1 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% A.J. Brown
Emeka Egbuka WR HIGH 12.2 3.6-24.5 ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 21% Emeka Egbuka
Dalton Schultz TE HIGH 9.0 2.8-17.2 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% Dalton Schultz
Commanders D/ST D/ST MED 3.0 1.3-5.1 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 89% Commanders D/ST
Jake Elliott K HIGH 7.9 2.2-14.7 ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 32% Jake Elliott

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
C.J. Stroud QB HIGH 14.3 5.3-25.4 ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 9% C.J. Stroud
Kenneth Gainwell RB HIGH 10.1 1.8-24.4 ↑15+: 23% | ↓5-: 35% Kenneth Gainwell
Wan'Dale Robinson WR HIGH 12.5 4.8-24.5 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 12% Wan'Dale Robinson
Courtland Sutton WR HIGH 12.9 5.6-22.1 ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 6% Courtland Sutton
Jakobi Meyers WR HIGH 12.5 5.4-21.7 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 8% Jakobi Meyers
Khalil Shakir WR HIGH 10.8 1.9-20.3 ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 25% Khalil Shakir
David Njoku TE HIGH 9.2 3.5-18.1 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 29% David Njoku

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.3 65% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.6 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.3 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 23.0 47% @ 12.0 26% @ 4.8 13.1
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 14.9 42% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.7 30% @ 5.4 14.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 73% @ 21.3 2% @ 14.7 25% @ 5.8 17.3
Rams D/ST D/ST 22% @ 17.6 39% @ 9.2 40% @ 4.0 8.9

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-4 1744.9 1548.1 +196.8 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 9-5 1633.8 1645.4 -11.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 99.9%
3 Valued Customers ← 8-6 1686.6 1445.6 +241.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W4 75.4%
4 Wookie of the Year 8-6 1601.3 1616.8 -15.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 58.1%
5 Meat Pistols 8-6 1429.7 1471.9 -42.3 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 33.2%
6 Ryan's Rowdy Team 7-7 1644.8 1620.4 +24.4 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 24.5%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-7 1610.5 1537.4 +73.1 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 8.9%
8 Moms rules 6-8 1536.5 1662.1 -125.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
9 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-8 1478.5 1531.2 -52.7 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%
10 Smooth Roosters 6-8 1471.5 1561.6 -90.1 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 The Warsaw Pact 5-9 1495.1 1646.5 -151.4 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-10 1584.9 1631.2 -46.3 0.0 vs 0.0 L3 0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols 0.0 @ 0.0 Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent adds needed. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) showing 28% boom on waivers if TE streaming needed. Ka'imi Fairbairn (K, HOU) available as kicker backup. Monitor Philip Rivers Colts situation for potential QB impact on IND defense vs JSN.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

12.5
Our Team MAE
16 players
0.0
Opponent MAE
9 players
25
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 8.0
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.8 22.0 0.0 -22.0
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 19.0 0.0 -19.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 18.0 0.0 -18.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 17.0 0.0 -17.0
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 15.5 0.0 -15.5
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 12.0 0.0 -12.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.7 11.0 0.0 -11.0
Our Team Marvin Harrison Jr. 12.8 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 11.0 8.0 0.0 -8.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Opponent WR Justin Jefferson 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent WR A.J. Brown 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Jonathan Taylor 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Sean Tucker 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent WR Emeka Egbuka 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent QB Caleb Williams 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent TE Dalton Schultz 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent K Jake Elliott 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Opponent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3
Our Team MAE
16 players
7.0
Opponent MAE
10 players
13.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 5.1
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Free Agent QB Sam Darnold 0.0 - 22.3 +22.3
Free Agent RB Devin Neal 0.0 - 15.4 +15.4
Opponent K Brandon Aubrey 8.9 8.9 24.0 +15.1
Opponent QB Patrick Mahomes 17.9 20.1 6.3 -13.8
Opponent WR DJ Moore 9.1 11.9 0.6 -11.3
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.1 17.0 7.4 -9.6
Opponent D/ST Vikings D/ST 5.2 6.3 15.0 +8.7
Opponent RB Nick Chubb 5.3 7.5 0.3 -7.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 12.1 8.0 14.7 +6.7
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 22.0 28.1 +6.1
Opponent WR Keon Coleman 6.7 9.2 3.6 -5.6
Opponent TE Dalton Kincaid 10.0 9.6 14.1 +4.5
Opponent WR Malik Washington 8.4 8.2 4.0 -4.2
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 10.0 14.0 +4.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 6.8 9.0 6.0 -3.0
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 10.3 8.0 11.0 +3.0
Free Agent D/ST Commanders D/ST 0.0 - 3.0 +3.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 10.0 7.8 -2.2
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.6 8.0 6.7 -1.3
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.6 18.0 19.3 +1.3
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 16.4 16.0 16.1 +0.1
Opponent RB Ollie Gordon II 3.2 7.8 7.7 -0.1
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 15.3 19.0 19.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.8 17.3 17.3 +0.0
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Opponent RB Ray Davis 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

TypeSourceClaimActualResolutionVerified By
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk
Fallback Triggered monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-12-09T18:54:46.870152

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 15.5 pts
ESPN 14.8 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
49%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.0 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
28% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
65%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 14.0 pts
90th percentile 23.9 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 22.0 pts
ESPN 20.8 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 30.4 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 12.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.5 pts
90th percentile 25.7 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 12.8 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.7 pts
Median (50th) 11.1 pts
90th percentile 21.6 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 18.0 pts
ESPN 17.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 17.1 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
31% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 10.1 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.8 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
20% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 11.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 11.8 pts
90th percentile 24.6 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 8.5 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.3 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 17.3 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
38% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 9.7 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.9 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 16.8 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
15% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 17.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.0 pts
Median (50th) 14.5 pts
90th percentile 25.1 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 19.0 pts
ESPN 13.9 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
73%
10th percentile 4.2 pts
Median (50th) 18.4 pts
90th percentile 28.1 pts
MC (Historical)
73% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 4.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 18.2 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Hunter Henry (TE)
Hunter Henry distribution
LLM 8.0 pts
ESPN 11.0 pts
BUST
48%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
13%
10th percentile 3.5 pts
Median (50th) 8.4 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
13% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 11.0 pts
ESPN 10.7 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 0.6 pts
Median (50th) 4.6 pts
90th percentile 18.4 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Luther Burden III (WR)
Luther Burden III distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.1 pts
BOOM
25%
MODERATE
55%
BUST
20%
10th percentile 7.3 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
Justin Jefferson (WR)
Justin Jefferson distribution
BUST
49%
MODERATE
45%
BOOM
6%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 12.0 pts
90th percentile 22.7 pts
MC (Historical)
6% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
A.J. Brown (WR)
A.J. Brown distribution
BUST
19%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
37%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 14.0 pts
90th percentile 29.0 pts
MC (Historical)
37% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Jonathan Taylor distribution
BUST
51%
MODERATE
25%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 8.6 pts
Median (50th) 16.6 pts
90th percentile 38.0 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Sean Tucker (RB)
Sean Tucker distribution
BUST
33%
MODERATE
51%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 6.8 pts
90th percentile 27.5 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Emeka Egbuka (WR)
Emeka Egbuka distribution
BUST
46%
MODERATE
25%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 9.7 pts
90th percentile 24.5 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Caleb Williams (QB)
Caleb Williams distribution
BUST
39%
MODERATE
33%
BOOM
28%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 15.8 pts
90th percentile 30.1 pts
MC (Historical)
28% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Dalton Schultz (TE)
Dalton Schultz distribution
BUST
43%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 7.7 pts
90th percentile 17.1 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
29% BOOM
Jake Elliott (K)
Jake Elliott distribution
BUST
34%
MODERATE
40%
BOOM
26%
10th percentile 2.1 pts
Median (50th) 7.1 pts
90th percentile 14.8 pts
MC (Historical)
26% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Commanders D/ST (D/ST)
Commanders D/ST distribution
BOOM
25%
MODERATE
55%
BUST
20%
10th percentile 1.4 pts
Median (50th) 2.8 pts
90th percentile 5.1 pts